(My views on the current situation in Andhra and how BJP could break some ground in the current situation)
The story of Andhra’s division has been a potboiler for the last few weeks. The way in which a separate state has been created, brings home the point that its only an intent that matters and rest everything under the sun can be worked around. The assembly rejected the bifurcation bill. The ruling party CM and MPs protested. The pepper spray’s demand too went up in the market. Finally, the good sense prevailed in Loksabha and Rajyasabha and the bill got passed.
While there was a lot of drama being created and enacted by the Congress itself (for its own ulterior motives), BJP was enjoying the ring side view. BJP was the only national party, which was crystal clear in its support for smaller states and it recommended and supported Telangana with 10 districts and Hyderabad as its integral capital from day one. BJP was never ambiguous on its support to Telangana. Why Mr KCR was behind Madamji and the likes of Digvijay Singh and Jairam Ramesh is best known to KCR and TRS.
In spite of its confused choices, TRS certainly needs to be appreciated for its efforts for bringing an identity to Telangana. It worked systematically and within the democratic framework, to give its people the needed identity. To that extent, TRS certainly deserves to own and govern the newly formed state of Telangana. As long as TRS thinks that getting a new state is a rewarding end to a long struggle, but more importantly, its a beginning of a new journey; it will stand to gain. The honesty and intent will be put to real test.
On the other hand, its the residual Andhra Pradesh (Seemandhra) which presents itself with a huge opportunity. The creation of a new capital will certainly create a new epicentre of growth and that’s good for the employment generation in both public and private sectors. The cities and belts like Guntur-Vijayawada, Vijayanagaram-Vishakhapatnam, Tirupathi, Kurnool, Rajahmundry, which were overshadowed by Hyderabad, will find their own new identity.
Vizag can be the next IT hub because of its cosmopolitan culture. Vizag-Vijayanagaram can also be a great cultural hub like Pune for Maharashtra. Vizag also attracts a lot of movie makers and the next big studios can be built in Vizag. Guntur-Bejawada would undoubtedly be the next business hub. Vijayawada’s rail connectivity and it being in the center of Seemandhra can act as a trading and business hub. Tirupathi and Rajahmundry could be the next educational hubs and are ideal locations for the likes of IITs, IIMs and AIIMS. The Ananthapur belt could be the used to set up huge solar power industry. The capital in itself need not be one of these cities but can be a different one focusing on the administrative aspects of the state. This model would present itself with uniform growth across the state and infrastructure and real-estate demand being shared rather than dumped on one city. This will also present good business case for multiple cities having state of the art infrastructure like Metros and Airports.
At this stage, it is more important for elected party in Seemandhra and Telangana to have the right intent to put the incoming money to best use. If we use the principle of rejection, the first couple of parties that can be thrown out of the window are Congress and YSRCP. Both Late Mr YSR and his heir Jagan had and have mastered the art of looting. The Jai Samikhyandra party is a non-starter. Even the name itself reflects its regressive mindset of uniting back 2 states which are separated for good. That leaves us with TDP.
TDP’s chief has an impeccable record of creating a modern Hyderabad. The memories of Hyderabad developing during the 9 years of Chandrababu Naidu’s rule, the leadership qualities and decision making ability of Chandrababu, the IT boom, the Bill Gates visit, are all still fresh among most Hyderabadis and Andhrites. In fact, TDP lost its elections because of being drubbed as pro-urban party and ignoring the village suicide cases. Three consecutive years of extreme drought was overlooked by the Andhra electorate and the YSR padayatra and anti-incumbancy factor were the final nails in the coffin. After 10 years, a new Andhra Pradesh needs leaders like ChandraBabu to take the drivers seat.
There is no doubt that there is a TDP wave in the Seemandhra and the TRS wave in Telangana. Both KCR and Chandrababu are leaders in their own right and deserve to be the CMs in their respective states. But can these two level headed people work together to resolve the initial issues that are sure going to crop up after division? What about water sharing? Electricity distribution? Can they genuinely work ‘together’ in letter and spirit while developing their respective states? Can they put their state’s prosperity above their individual differences or will they keep knocking the doors of Supreme Court and the Central tribunals for petty issues?
That’s where the role of a national party like BJP becomes more apparent and important. BJP doesn’t have a strong fan base in AP like it does in neighboring states like Karnataka. BJP is still considered as an outsider north-Indian party and has ground to cover in terms of connecting with people at ground level. The likes of Purandareshwari joining BJP is a good start to a long journey. Modi can ceratainly help BJP win a few MP seats but not many MLA seats. BJP should hence play its cards cleverly and act on its strength.
In Seemandhra, it should use this opportunity to help as a genuine care taker of smaller states and work with regional parties like TDP to establish its footprint in the new state. It should therefore enter into pre-poll alliances and be honest about it. BJP cannot win many seats on its own and it should not try to over-achieve. TDP has been a part of NDA before and is more trustworthy than KCR’s TRS. Getting into an alliance with TDP should also be relatively easy and safe. Modi wave should not be used to flex muscles and BJP should not get into an uncomfortable tussle with TDP on seat sharing. All of this should be viewed as an investment to get closer to people in the area dominated by politics of Reddies/Naidus and Kammas/Kaapus.
On the other hand, BJP should try and fight alone in Telangana but not spew too much venom on KCR as he could be a good post-poll ally. KCR is an opportunist and given that Congress is going to be wiped out in 2014 elections, has and will keep his options open. He has cleverly rejected both the options of merging and having pre-poll alliance with Congress. At the end of the day, he is Congress’ B-team and BJP should be cautious about him (remember his visit to Soniaji’s house along with his family).
It is almost certain that BJP led NDA will come into power in 2014 general elections. During the next 5 years, BJP should help both the regions genuinely and establish connect with the people of both the regions. This is by far the best opportunity for BJP to grow its presence in the south. BJP/Centre’s direct intervention in creating jobs by establishing a nuclear power plant in Seemandhra, speedy establishments of IITs, IIMs, AIIMS; National highway projects; Nationalization of projects like Polavaram; More railway junctions and railway-centric establishments; Film cities; Tax holidays for IT and private sector companies; approving new airports; taking existing airports to the next level; initiating and funding metro projects across tier 2 and 3 cities are some of the genuine things that BJP can plan to help in both the regions, by being at the centre. Given the thirst in BJP’s leadership to see a Congress-mukth Bharat, it is certain that BJP will leave no stone unturned to be a pan-India party. Telangana and Andhra Pradesh could well be the next milestones for BJP in its trek towards the peak.
(published Mar 2014)
